Compare Mainz 05 vs Nacional

Mainz 05 vs Nacional Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Compare Mainz 05 vs Nacional: head-to-head stats, recent form, goals, defensive record and strength indicators from last matches.

Mainz 05 Home Team

Nacional Away Team

Mainz 05

55.4

L W L D L L W W W W

Last 10 Matches

Nacional

40.8

L L W W L W L L D L

Categories Won

Mainz 05

Draw

Nacional

Performance Radar

Mainz 05

Nacional

Statistical Comparison

Win Percentage

50%

5W, 1D, 4L

30%

3W, 1D, 6L

Goals Scored / Match

1.5

15 / 10 matches

0.8

8 / 10 matches

Goals Conceded / Match

1.6

16 / 10 matches

1.1

11 / 10 matches

Goal Difference

-1

-3

Clean Sheet

20%

2 / 10 matches

30%

3 / 10 matches

Over 2.5 Goals

60%

6 / 10 matches

20%

2 / 10 matches

Both Teams to Score

60%

6 / 10 matches

30%

3 / 10 matches

Top Scorer

P. Tietz (3 goals)

J. Ramírez (3 goals)

Most Goals by Half

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 6

1st Half: 4 / 2nd Half: 4

Home Win Rate

50%

3W / 6 matches

40%

2W / 5 matches

Away Win Rate

50%

2W / 4 matches

20%

1W / 5 matches

Schedule Strength (SoS)

69.0

League Difficulty: 87.1, Opponent Quality: 61.8

53.1

League Difficulty: 79.0, Opponent Quality: 61.5

Elite Opponent Record

50%

1W / 2 matches

0W / 3 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

1.84

Actual: 1.5 | Diff: -0.34

0.96

Actual: 0.8 | Diff: -0.16

Adjusted Power Rating

55.4

Attack: 59.5, Defense: 55.5, Form: 59.5

40.8

Attack: 27.5, Defense: 65.3, Form: 30.9

Goal Timing Analysis

0-15'

16-30'

31-45'

46-60'

61-75'

76-90+'

Mainz 05

Nacional

Power Rating Breakdown

55.4

Overall

Attack 59.5

Defense 55.5

Form 59.5

Consistency 38.8

Power Rating Breakdown

40.8

Overall

Attack 27.5

Defense 65.3

Form 30.9

Consistency 46.0

Strength of Schedule

Measures the difficulty of opponents faced. Higher = tougher schedule.

League Difficulty

87.1 vs 79.0

Opponent Quality

61.8 vs 61.5

Elite Opponent Record

50% vs 0%

Mainz 05

Nacional

Opponent Quality: Quality blends league strength, recent points form, goal difference, and home/away context. It is not only club size or reputation.

Opponent Breakdown

League

Score

Opp. Quality

Union Berlin H

German Bundesliga

1 - 3 L

52%

St. Pauli A

German Bundesliga

2 - 1 W

55%

Bayern Munich H

German Bundesliga

3 - 4 L

81%

M'gladbach A

German Bundesliga

1 - 1 D

68%

Strasbourg A

UEFA Conference League

0 - 4 L

57%

Freiburg H

German Bundesliga

0 - 1 L

67%

Strasbourg H

UEFA Conference League

2 - 0 W

52%

Hoffenheim A

German Bundesliga

2 - 1 W

70%

Frankfurt H

German Bundesliga

2 - 1 W

62%

Olomouc H

UEFA Conference League

2 - 0 W

54%

Opponent Breakdown

League

Score

Opp. Quality

Santa Clara A

Portuguese Primeira Liga

0 - 2 L

71%

AVS H

Portuguese Primeira Liga

1 - 2 L

59%

Tondela A

Portuguese Primeira Liga

2 - 0 W

57%

Alverca H

Portuguese Primeira Liga

1 - 0 W

59%

Benfica A

Portuguese Primeira Liga

0 - 2 L

80%

Estrela H

Portuguese Primeira Liga

2 - 0 W

49%

Famalicão A

Portuguese Primeira Liga

0 - 1 L

74%

Estoril H

Portuguese Primeira Liga

0 - 1 L

47%

Moreirense A

Portuguese Primeira Liga

1 - 1 D

55%

Braga H

Portuguese Primeira Liga

1 - 2 L

64%

AI Analysis

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated.

Mainz 05 has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 69.0) compared to Nacional (SoS: 53.1). This means Mainz 05's statistics carry more weight, as they were achieved against higher-caliber opponents.

Mainz 05 holds the attacking edge with 1.5 goals per match versus Nacional's 0.8, though the gap is not insurmountable.

Nacional has the defensive edge, conceding 1.1 per match compared to Mainz 05's 1.6.

Nacional has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.5 total goals. Under 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with both teams to score being possible.

Mainz 05 has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 14.6 point power rating difference suggests a competitive match where small details could decide the outcome.

Match Simulator

AI-powered match simulation based on real statistics

Mainz 05

Nacional

In H2H (head-to-head) matchups, to eliminate momentary fluctuations and coincidences, we limit our analyses to an optimal depth of exactly 10 matches. Neither less, nor more. This focused approach is our undisputed gold standard, revealing the tactical and psychological supremacy teams hold over each other in its purest form. We do not dwell on the noise of the past; we concentrate on the millimetric precision of current form.

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